Part of: Next Claude Sonnet released by...?

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,923.

Categories: Claude 5, AI, Sonnet, Tech, anthropic

Notable Trades

Profitable new repeat bettor

New 17-day wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early positive P&L bought Yes despite the market now pricing lower.

  • This 17-day-old wallet has already been flagged 8 times for large bets, totaling about $20.6K.
  • The bettor is up $2.2K so far and has won 4 of 5 resolved markets.
  • They paid 50¢ for Yes, above the current 34¢ market price, showing strong conviction on a thin, wide-spread market.

$2,917 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

82% winner buying momentum

Proven profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate bought Yes after major upward momentum in an AI release-date market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $8.8k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 62¢ while the market has jumped 24.5 points in the past day.
  • Entry at 62¢ implies they still see upside before the June 2026 deadline.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

1-day repeat new wallet

A 1-day-old wallet has rapidly built multiple flagged positions and paid the full 60¢ ask on a thin market, suggesting fresh conviction despite no resolved track record yet.

  • This brand-new wallet has already made 9 flagged bets totaling about $17k in under 2 days.
  • They paid 60¢ for Yes despite a wide spread, suggesting urgency or strong conviction.
  • The market has seen heavy recent activity, with $17k traded in 24h and Yes up 10 points.

$1,006 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xfefb...8f26 Outcome 83157741, $8,088
  2. 0x5b71...cb46 Outcome 83157741, $5,250
  3. 0x7280...0838 Outcome 83157741, $5,119
  4. 0x2c39...56dc Outcome 83157741, $5,000 (55% win rate)
  5. 0xa37a...a9e7 Outcome 83157741, $5,000 (54% win rate)
  6. 0x1a43...1a84 Outcome 83157741, $3,718
  7. 0xb22c...464c Outcome 83157741, $3,508
  8. 0x6ffb...a834 Outcome 83157741, $3,179 (95% win rate)
  9. 0xe656...3753 Outcome 83157741, $3,003
  10. 0xdf90...5637 Outcome 83157741, $2,818

Related Theses

Mythos releases by June 9

Covers 3 related markets

Fable returns after June 22

Covers 3 related markets

Claude Fable returns soon

Covers 4 related markets

Next Claude Sonnet releases by June

Covers 2 related markets

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedNext Claude Sonnet released by...?$5,923 tracked3 signalsClaude 5AISonnetTechanthropic

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
84¢
50¢
17¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

2d ago

$2,917 on Yes at 50¢

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

5d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 62¢

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

5d ago

$1,006 on Yes at 60¢

Related Theses