Part of: Next Claude Sonnet released by...?
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,923.
Categories: Claude 5, AI, Sonnet, Tech, anthropic
Notable Trades
Profitable new repeat bettor
New 17-day wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early positive P&L bought Yes despite the market now pricing lower.
- This 17-day-old wallet has already been flagged 8 times for large bets, totaling about $20.6K.
- The bettor is up $2.2K so far and has won 4 of 5 resolved markets.
- They paid 50¢ for Yes, above the current 34¢ market price, showing strong conviction on a thin, wide-spread market.
$2,917 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
82% winner buying momentum
Proven profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate bought Yes after major upward momentum in an AI release-date market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $8.8k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 62¢ while the market has jumped 24.5 points in the past day.
- Entry at 62¢ implies they still see upside before the June 2026 deadline.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
1-day repeat new wallet
A 1-day-old wallet has rapidly built multiple flagged positions and paid the full 60¢ ask on a thin market, suggesting fresh conviction despite no resolved track record yet.
- This brand-new wallet has already made 9 flagged bets totaling about $17k in under 2 days.
- They paid 60¢ for Yes despite a wide spread, suggesting urgency or strong conviction.
- The market has seen heavy recent activity, with $17k traded in 24h and Yes up 10 points.
$1,006 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%
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