Part of: Next Claude Sonnet released by...?

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,923.

Categories: Claude 5, AI, Sonnet, Tech, anthropic

Notable Trades

Profitable new repeat bettor

New 17-day wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early positive P&L bought Yes despite the market now pricing lower.

  • This 17-day-old wallet has already been flagged 8 times for large bets, totaling about $20.6K.
  • The bettor is up $2.2K so far and has won 4 of 5 resolved markets.
  • They paid 50¢ for Yes, above the current 34¢ market price, showing strong conviction on a thin, wide-spread market.

$2,917 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

82% winner buying momentum

Proven profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate bought Yes after major upward momentum in an AI release-date market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $8.8k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 62¢ while the market has jumped 24.5 points in the past day.
  • Entry at 62¢ implies they still see upside before the June 2026 deadline.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

1-day repeat new wallet

A 1-day-old wallet has rapidly built multiple flagged positions and paid the full 60¢ ask on a thin market, suggesting fresh conviction despite no resolved track record yet.

  • This brand-new wallet has already made 9 flagged bets totaling about $17k in under 2 days.
  • They paid 60¢ for Yes despite a wide spread, suggesting urgency or strong conviction.
  • The market has seen heavy recent activity, with $17k traded in 24h and Yes up 10 points.

$1,006 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 39%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfefb...8f26 Outcome 83157741, $8,088
  2. 0x5b71...cb46 Outcome 83157741, $5,250
  3. 0x7280...0838 Outcome 83157741, $5,119
  4. 0x1a43...1a84 Outcome 83157741, $3,718
  5. 0xb22c...464c Outcome 83157741, $3,508
  6. 0x4178...fbcb Outcome 83157741, $3,179
  7. 0xe656...3753 Outcome 83157741, $3,003
  8. 0xdf90...5637 Outcome 83157741, $2,818
  9. 0x1f66...4c8d Outcome 83157741, $2,418 (56% win rate)
  10. 0x3908...d10e Outcome 83157741, $1,500

Related Theses

Claude Fable returns soon

Covers 4 related markets

Gemini Pro launches August 15–21

Covers 3 related markets

Ceasefire arrives after July 24

Covers 2 related markets

Fable returns after June 22

Covers 3 related markets

Mythos releases by June 9

Covers 3 related markets

Grok 4.6 releases August 13–14

Covers 3 related markets

GPT-5.6 launches July 7-13

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Next Claude Sonnet releases by June

Covers 2 related markets

GPT-6 launches in September

Covers 3 related markets

Astra releases in late August

Covers 2 related markets

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedNext Claude Sonnet released by...?$5,923 tracked3 signalsClaude 5AISonnetTechanthropic

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 4.7, Claude Sonnet 5.0, Sonnet 5, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

55d ago

$2,917 on Yes at 50¢

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 62¢

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$1,006 on Yes at 60¢

Related Theses

Claude Fable returns soon
Wallet_0x876bb trades 4 related markets
Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…
Gemini Pro launches August 15–21
Wallet_0x876bb trades 3 related markets
Will the next Google Gemini Pr…Will the next Google Gemini Pr…Will the next Google Gemini Pr…
Ceasefire arrives after July 24
Wallet_0x876bb trades 2 related markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Fable returns after June 22
Wallet_0x70148 trades 3 related markets
Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…Will Claude Fable 5 be restore…
Mythos releases by June 9
Wallet_0x75782 trades 3 related markets
Will a Claude Mythos model be …Will a Claude Mythos model be …Will a Claude Mythos model be …
Grok 4.6 releases August 13–14
Wallet_0x876bb trades 3 related markets
Grok 4.6 released by August 12…Grok 4.6 released by August 14…Grok 4.6 released by August 7,…
GPT-5.6 launches July 7-13
Wallet_0x876bb trades 2 related markets
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 20…GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2…
Next Claude Sonnet releases by June
Wallet_0x876bb trades 2 related markets
Will the next Claude Sonnet mo…Will the next Claude Sonnet mo…
GPT-6 launches in September
Wallet_0x876bb trades 3 related markets
Will GPT-6 be released by Sept…Will GPT-6 be released by Augu…Will GPT-6 be released by Augu…
Astra releases in late August
Wallet_0x876bb trades 2 related markets
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be r…Will OpenAI’s Astra model be r…