Part of: Texas Senate Election Winner

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the Republican nominee will win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. PolySpotter is tracking $2,237 in smart money activity and 1 signal so far; check the live market price for the latest implied odds. The market resolves based on the official winner of the 2026 midterm Texas Senate race.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,237.

Categories: Politics, Elections, US Election, Midterms, Texas Senate, Senate midterms, Texas Midterm

Notable Trades

Veteran cross-market winner

Veteran serial cross-market bettor with a 70% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Republican Yes in a relatively quiet market.

  • This bettor has 24,568 resolved trades, wins 70%, and is up $171,766 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 314 events, suggesting this is part of a broader political thesis.
  • The $2.2k buy is about 25% of the market’s 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction in a quiet market.

$2,237 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $30,108
  2. 0xef2f...8b9c Yes, $15,343
  3. 0x477f...19aa Yes, $7,470
  4. 0xf1f9...1245 No, $6,452 (56% win rate)
  5. 0x357e...2a0c No, $4,361
  6. 0x5b63...11a4 Yes, $4,049 (70% win rate)
  7. 0x3c91...9af7 Yes, $3,900 (77% win rate)
  8. 0xf2f6...5817 No, $3,700 (75% win rate)
  9. 0x011f...1122 Yes, $3,400 (40% win rate)
  10. 0x5375...aeea Yes, $2,529 (44% win rate)

Related Theses

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Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Texas Senate Election Winner$2,237 tracked1 signalPoliticsElectionsUS ElectionMidtermsTexas SenateSenate midtermsTexas Midterm
Yes
56¢
No
45¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “Yes
57¢
52¢
47¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

6h ago

$2,237 on Yes at 55¢

55¢56¢1¢

Related Theses