Texas Senate Election Winner
18 signals across 2 markets · $129,733 tracked · resolves Nov 4, 2026
This event tracks prediction-market odds for the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including whether the Democratic nominee can win the race. PolySpotter has detected $1,291 in smart money activity so far, with a recent sharp bettor signal fading Democrats.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 7-wallet funded cluster adding No
Seven wallets linked by a shared funder deployed about $3,183, while this profitable trader adds to an existing large No position.
$3,183Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - 7-wallet funded cluster adding No
Seven wallets linked by a shared funder deployed about $3,183, while this profitable trader adds to an existing large No position.
$1,950Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Profitable 82% bettor adds to Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate across 337 resolved positions added to an existing Yes position at 37¢.
$3,299Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 6.4 - Three-wallet No cluster amid volume spike
Three wallets committed about $20.2K to No during a 78x volume spike, creating a notable coordinated directional signal despite mixed wallet records.
$20,196Score: 6.1 - Elite cross-market sharp
Sharp cross-market bettor with an 80% resolved win rate and $2.4M lifetime profit bought No on Republicans winning the 2026 Texas Senate race.
$1,220Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 6.0 - Proven sharp adds to No
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate added nearly $20,000 to an existing No position at 35¢.
$9,544Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.7 - Three-wallet bullish cluster
Three wallets showed aligned bullish positioning totaling $7,539, including a bettor adding to a Yes position and two traders selling No, though the strongest track record has only eight resolved bets.
$7,539Score: 5.6 - 82% win-rate serial trader
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and substantial edge is re-entering Yes on the Texas Senate market at 51¢.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - 95% winner buys Texas Republican Yes
A highly profitable bettor with 814 resolved positions and a 95% win rate is buying Yes at 39¢, well below the market’s current 40% odds.
$1,230Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 5.4 - Proven sharp adds to No
A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate added nearly $20,000 to an existing No position at 35¢.
$19,937Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.4
Top wallets in this event
- 0xa97482…ef79$32,781 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 83% wins
- 0x74471a…a16d$30,890 · 1 market · 1 alert · 53% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$20,207 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 81% wins
- 0x23d81b…0288$5,687 · 1 market · 1 alert · 81% wins
- 0xe23495…304a$5,133 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 66% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$2,291 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x5b6331…11a4$2,237 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0x94c4fe…43ca$1,542 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins
- 0x16bb99…8492$1,230 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins
FAQs
What are the Texas Senate 2026 prediction market odds?
This Polymarket event shows how traders are pricing the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race, currently centered on whether Democrats will win. The odds move as traders react to polling, candidate news, fundraising, and broader midterm conditions.
What is smart money doing in the Texas Senate market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,291 in smart money across this event, with one recent signal: a sharp bettor faded Democrats. That suggests at least one tracked trader was positioning against a Democratic win at the time of the alert.
Does this market include runoffs?
Yes. The event description says it resolves according to the winner of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
When does the Texas Senate 2026 market resolve?
The event is listed with a resolve-by date of November 3, 2026, though final resolution may depend on the official winner, including any runoff scenario covered by the market rules.
Where can I track Texas Senate Polymarket activity?
PolySpotter tracks the event’s Polymarket odds, child markets, and smart money alerts so you can see not just the price, but which side sharper traders appear to be taking.