Part of: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day will earn between $800 million and $900 million in domestic box office revenue by August 31, 2026. It will resolve using finalized daily box office figures from The Numbers for the film’s July 31 through August 31 run; live market odds were not included in the supplied metadata.

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,563.

Categories: Movies, Culture, box office, spider-man

Notable Trades

High-volume bettor scaling into No

A profitable high-volume bettor made a concentrated No position in a relatively quiet market, and No subsequently rose from roughly 54% to 67%, though the wallet's edge is modest relative to its average winning price.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 1,159 resolved bets and is up $1.15M lifetime.
  • They invested $4,281 in No, representing 55% of the market's 24-hour volume.
  • No moved from an average entry near 54% to 67%, but the current price is above the suggested copy ceiling.

$4,281 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly experienced, profitable serial trader placed a fresh $2.3K bet on No, with additional positioning across the same movie event and subsequent upward momentum.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 1,159 resolved trades and earned over $1.1 million.
  • They placed a fresh $2,313 bet on No at 52¢ while also trading another market tied to the same movie event.
  • The No price has risen to roughly 54%, supporting the direction of the trade.

$1,969 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly experienced, profitable serial trader placed a fresh $2.3K bet on No, with additional positioning across the same movie event and subsequent upward momentum.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 1,159 resolved trades and earned over $1.1 million.
  • They placed a fresh $2,313 bet on No at 52¢ while also trading another market tied to the same movie event.
  • The No price has risen to roughly 54%, supporting the direction of the trade.

$2,313 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $102,588
  2. 0xecaa...77a9 No, $46,723 (72% win rate)
  3. 0xe2b1...7d2a Yes, $32,701 (46% win rate)
  4. 0x44c1...ebc1 Yes, $31,164 (60% win rate)
  5. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $25,139 (69% win rate)
  6. 0x0c18...a04c Yes, $24,518 (29% win rate)
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $17,120
  8. 0x9d84...1344 No, $13,781 (43% win rate)
  9. 0x215a...254c No, $12,527
  10. 0x4755...4158 Yes, $12,385 (98% win rate)

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Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

7d"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?$8,563 tracked3 signalsMoviesCulturebox officespider-man
Yes
67¢
No
34¢

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Price History — “Yes
85¢
65¢
45¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

11d ago

$4,281 on No at 54¢

54¢34¢20¢

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

12d ago

$1,969 on No at 52¢

52¢34¢18¢

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

12d ago

$2,313 on No at 52¢

52¢34¢18¢

Related Theses