Part of: Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?
This Polymarket asks whether Donald Trump will grant Martin Shkreli a pardon, commutation, or reprieve during calendar year 2026. The market resolves to Yes if official US government information or a consensus of credible reporting confirms clemency by December 31, 2026, and otherwise resolves to No. Traders are using it to track live prediction market odds on a possible Trump pardon for Shkreli before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,954.
Notable Trades
83% win-rate NO buyer
A proven 83% win-rate trader made a nearly $5k buy that was almost the entire day's volume in a thin pardon market, and the price moved strongly in their favor afterward.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $25.4k overall
- They put nearly $5k into No, about 99% of the market's 24-hour volume
- Their 84¢ entry already looks strong with No now trading around 94¢
$4,919 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
96% winner buys Yes
A very high-win-rate wallet sold No on a relatively quiet political market, effectively buying Yes around 19¢ despite only a weak market-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades across 294 markets.
- They effectively bought Yes at 19¢ by selling No at 81¢.
- The market is fairly quiet, so a $1.0k trade stands out more than it would in a deeper market.
$1,035 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%
Top Holders
- 0x4133...ea5d — No, $6,989 (79% win rate)
- 0x9b6f...0e5f — Yes, $4,643 (39% win rate)
- 0x4db6...9842 — Yes, $1,307
- 0x342a...9395 — No, $549
- 0x9a3f...914a — Yes, $500 (56% win rate)
- 0x21a1...2f95 — Yes, $459
- 0x5446...18f6 — No, $302
- 0x0d42...f124 — Yes, $300
- 0x75d1...7a5f — Yes, $210
- 0xff7c...b233 — Yes, $200 (47% win rate)
