What counts as a Yes outcome in this Trump pardon market?

The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump grants Martin Shkreli a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

When does the Martin Shkreli pardon market resolve?

The market resolves based on whether clemency happens by the end of 2026. If no qualifying pardon, commutation, or reprieve is confirmed by December 31, 2026, it resolves to No.

What sources determine the result of this Polymarket?

The primary resolution source is official US government information. If needed, a consensus of credible reporting can also be used to confirm whether Shkreli received clemency.

Does a commutation or reprieve count, or only a full pardon?

Yes. This market is broader than a full pardon alone: a pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Trump during the stated window would all qualify for a Yes resolution.

Why are traders following this market on Polymarket?

Searchers and traders use this market to monitor real-time odds on whether Trump will extend clemency to Martin Shkreli before 2027, along with any smart money activity and headline-driven shifts in sentiment.

Part of: Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?

This Polymarket asks whether Donald Trump will grant Martin Shkreli a pardon, commutation, or reprieve during calendar year 2026. The market resolves to Yes if official US government information or a consensus of credible reporting confirms clemency by December 31, 2026, and otherwise resolves to No. Traders are using it to track live prediction market odds on a possible Trump pardon for Shkreli before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,954.

Categories: Trump, Politics

Notable Trades

83% win-rate NO buyer

A proven 83% win-rate trader made a nearly $5k buy that was almost the entire day's volume in a thin pardon market, and the price moved strongly in their favor afterward.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $25.4k overall
They put nearly $5k into No, about 99% of the market's 24-hour volume
Their 84¢ entry already looks strong with No now trading around 94¢

$4,919 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

96% winner buys Yes

A very high-win-rate wallet sold No on a relatively quiet political market, effectively buying Yes around 19¢ despite only a weak market-activity signal.

This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades across 294 markets.
They effectively bought Yes at 19¢ by selling No at 81¢.
The market is fairly quiet, so a $1.0k trade stands out more than it would in a deeper market.

$1,035 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%