Part of: Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump will grant Sam Bankman-Fried a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026. It resolves based primarily on official U.S. government information, with credible reporting used if needed. PolySpotter tracks $7,010 in smart money activity, including recent sharp and profitable-bettor signals favoring No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,075.
Notable Trades
Million-dollar sharp buys No
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor put $5.8k on No in a quiet pardon market, dwarfing recent volume.
- This bettor has made over $3.1M lifetime and wins 74% of resolved trades across 2,555 bets.
- They bought $5.8k of No in a quiet market, more than 15x the reported recent volume.
- Entry around 89¢ suggests a high-conviction view that a Trump pardon is unlikely.
$5,780 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial bettor
Highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $3.18M lifetime profit bought No despite limited recent market activity.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $3.18M lifetime.
- They have traded across 117 events with over $1.1M in similar cross-market activity.
- Buying No at 90¢ signals confidence that an SBF pardon before 2027 is very unlikely.
$1,230 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable 77% winner buying NO
Surfaced because a highly experienced profitable wallet with a 77% historical win rate is buying No despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 77% of 1,110 resolved bets and is up $81.6K lifetime.
- They bought $1.1K of No at 87¢, taking the side that Trump will not pardon SBF before 2027.
- The market is liquid enough to follow, with a tight 1¢ spread and No currently around 87%.
$1,065 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
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