What does this Trump pardon market for Sam Bankman-Fried predict?

The market predicts whether Donald Trump will pardon, commute, or reprieve Sam Bankman-Fried before the end of 2026, during the specified resolution window from November 17, 2025 through December 31, 2026.

When does the Sam Bankman-Fried pardon market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, unless qualifying official information or credible reporting confirms the outcome earlier.

What are smart money traders signaling on this market?

Recent PolySpotter alerts show smart money activity leaning toward No, including a million-dollar sharp buy and profitable bettors buying No.

Where does the market get its final resolution information?

The primary resolution source is official information from the U.S. government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if necessary.

Part of: Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Q: What counts as a Yes outcome in this market?

A Yes outcome requires Sam Bankman-Fried to receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump during the market’s stated time window.

This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump will grant Sam Bankman-Fried a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026. It resolves based primarily on official U.S. government information, with credible reporting used if needed. PolySpotter tracks $7,010 in smart money activity, including recent sharp and profitable-bettor signals favoring No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,075.

Categories: Trump, Politics

Notable Trades

Million-dollar sharp buys No

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor put $5.8k on No in a quiet pardon market, dwarfing recent volume.

This bettor has made over $3.1M lifetime and wins 74% of resolved trades across 2,555 bets.
They bought $5.8k of No in a quiet market, more than 15x the reported recent volume.
Entry around 89¢ suggests a high-conviction view that a Trump pardon is unlikely.

$5,780 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable serial bettor

Highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $3.18M lifetime profit bought No despite limited recent market activity.

This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $3.18M lifetime.
They have traded across 117 events with over $1.1M in similar cross-market activity.
Buying No at 90¢ signals confidence that an SBF pardon before 2027 is very unlikely.

$1,230 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable 77% winner buying NO

Surfaced because a highly experienced profitable wallet with a 77% historical win rate is buying No despite only a weak low-activity signal.

This bettor has won 77% of 1,110 resolved bets and is up $81.6K lifetime.
They bought $1.1K of No at 87¢, taking the side that Trump will not pardon SBF before 2027.
The market is liquid enough to follow, with a tight 1¢ spread and No currently around 87%.

$1,065 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%