Part of: Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump will grant Sam Bankman-Fried a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026. The market resolves based primarily on official U.S. government information, with credible reporting used if needed. PolySpotter is tracking $1,065 in smart money activity, including one recent signal from a profitable 77% winner buying NO.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,065.
Notable Trades
Profitable 77% winner buying NO
Surfaced because a highly experienced profitable wallet with a 77% historical win rate is buying No despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 77% of 1,110 resolved bets and is up $81.6K lifetime.
- They bought $1.1K of No at 87¢, taking the side that Trump will not pardon SBF before 2027.
- The market is liquid enough to follow, with a tight 1¢ spread and No currently around 87%.
$1,065 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0x8b71...8044 — No, $5,400 (89% win rate)
- 0x03c8...0e01 — Yes, $2,500
- 0xb6ef...039d — Yes, $2,362
- 0x11f3...d859 — No, $2,151 (69% win rate)
- 0xcaab...24dd — No, $2,065 (77% win rate)
- 0x291c...7a69 — Yes, $1,867 (80% win rate)
- 0x9507...7b04 — No, $1,394 (88% win rate)
- 0x3b5b...26fa — Yes, $1,124 (75% win rate)
- 0x9352...2227 — No, $1,000 (63% win rate)
- 0x6f67...102c — Yes, $807
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