Part of: Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?
This prediction market asks whether Ukraine will capture any territory in Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by May 31, 2026, according to the ISW map. The market resolves “Yes” if any part of the specified area is shown as Ukrainian-controlled or newly captured under the relevant ISW map layer by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,283 in smart money activity on this market, including a recent Yes buy from a profitable geopolitics trader.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,283.
Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map
Notable Trades
Profitable geopolitics regular buys Yes
Profitable serial cross-market bettor is effectively buying Yes on a quiet Ukraine territory market, with modest price momentum supporting the move.
- This bettor has 739 resolved trades, wins 73% of them, and is up $271k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $8.8M in tracked activity across 107 events.
- Selling No at 87¢ is the same as buying Yes at 13¢, on a quiet market where Yes has been drifting up.
$1,283 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xe99b...0443 — Yes, $5,107
- 0xef73...c3c7 — No, $1,119
- 0x7590...d6e0 — No, $845 (98% win rate)
- 0xb26c...0eb0 — No, $811
- 0xac4a...bf1e — No, $555
- 0xd77e...43b3 — No, $530
- 0x215a...254c — Yes, $413
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $400 (47% win rate)
- 0x21ff...0d71 — No, $357
- 0x84d7...298f — Yes, $299
Related Theses
Ukraine retakes Uspenivka by May 31
Covers 1 related market
