Part of: Colorado Governor Republican Primary Margin of Victory

Will Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by less than 1%?

This prediction market asks whether Victor Marx will win the 2026 Colorado Republican gubernatorial primary by a margin of less than 1 percentage point. The market resolves based on the final margin between the top two candidates in the June 30, 2026 Republican primary, using valid vote percentages. PolySpotter is tracking $1,093 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,093.

Categories: Elections, Colorado Primaries, Politics, colorado, USA Election, Primaries

Notable Trades

Profitable serial political bettor

Profitable serial cross-market bettor placed a large relative bet on a very thin political market, and the price moved sharply in their direction.

  • This bettor has a long record: 297 resolved bets, 63% wins, and $169k in lifetime profit.
  • Their $1.1k Yes buy was nearly 69% of the market’s 24h volume in a very thin order book.
  • The market has moved hard toward them, with Yes up 45 points today and now trading around 89¢.

$1,093 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0x45b2...cbc1 Outcome 11445598, $1,176 (15% win rate)
  2. 0x6f67...102c Outcome 11445598, $701
  3. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 11445598, $519
  4. 0xfe41...9f23 Outcome 11445598, $375
  5. 0xf333...ba41 Outcome 11445598, $200
  6. 0x03e1...e180 Outcome 11445598, $200
  7. 0x2d48...678c Outcome 11445598, $148
  8. 0x3329...43a6 Outcome 11445598, $100
  9. 0xa3e2...fdf8 Outcome 11445598, $96
  10. 0x9a94...d5f9 Outcome 11445598, $50

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Will Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by less than 1%?

Colorado Governor Republican Primary Margin of Victory$1,093 tracked1 signalElectionsColorado PrimariesPoliticscoloradoUSA ElectionPrimaries

The Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election was held on June 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Colorado Gubernatorial Republican primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Colorado, such as official statewide results published by the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “Yes
101¢
98¢
95¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by less than 1%?

37d ago

$1,093 on Yes at 82¢

Related Theses