Part of: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
47 smart money signals detected, totaling $129,213.
Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Commodities, Oil
Notable Trades
WTI whale tail bet
A profitable high-volume wallet is making a broad cross-market WTI upside-tail bet, with $712k positioned across 16 related markets despite this specific entry being small and far out-of-the-money.
- This wallet has bet about $712k across 16 related WTI markets, showing a broad oil-spike thesis.
- The bettor is up $271k lifetime across $10.6M traded, despite winning only 45% of resolved bets.
- This entry is at 1¢, making it a very high-upside tail bet if WTI unexpectedly trades at or above $85 in May.
$1,717 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%
87% serial market winner
Sharp 87% lifetime winner with extensive cross-market history is re-entering a No position on a WTI oil price market with meaningful size.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $229K lifetime.
- They have traded 263 markets across 166 events, with $5.2M total activity.
- They bought $7.7K of No at 89¢, signaling high confidence WTI will not hit this level in May.
$7,664 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% winner across oil markets
A proven 87% winner with $229k lifetime profit is adding a fresh No bet as part of a large cross-market oil thesis.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $229k lifetime.
- They have traded 8 related markets in this oil event, with $276,946 positioned across them.
- This is a fresh No re-entry after a prior closed position, suggesting renewed conviction at 87¢.
$4,812 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% winner oil thesis
Sharp 87% lifetime winner is re-entering No and has a large cross-market oil thesis across 8 related markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $229K lifetime.
- They are active across 8 related oil markets with $272K positioned in this event.
- This is a fresh No re-entry after previously closing a No position on the same market.
$1,445 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% winner re-enters No
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% long-term win rate is re-entering No across a broader WTI event thesis.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $229K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $5.2M deployed across 166 events.
- This is part of a broader WTI thesis, with $273K traded across 8 related markets.
$2,339 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
87% serial cross-market bettor
A highly proven 87% win-rate wallet with extensive cross-market history is effectively moving toward Yes by selling No on this oil market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $229K lifetime.
- They have traded 8 related markets in this event, with $272K positioned across them.
- Selling No at 51¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 49¢, after Yes has already moved up 23 points this week.
$1,274 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp oil cross-market bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate is expressing a cross-market oil thesis by effectively buying Yes on WTI reaching the $85 threshold.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $523k lifetime.
- They have traded across 5 related oil markets with $53k deployed and an 82% win rate.
- This trade is effectively a Buy Yes at 49¢, meaning they are backing WTI to reach the $85 threshold.
$2,041 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
87% oil specialist positioning
Surfaced because this is a proven 87% win-rate trader with strong cross-market oil positioning, buying No at 74¢ as part of a large event-wide thesis.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $230K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 166 events and over $5.1M in tracked volume.
- This is part of a broader 8-market oil thesis totaling about $273K across runs.
$1,887 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable oil cross-market trader
Profitable wallet with $177k lifetime P&L is actively trading a 12-market WTI thesis, though this specific add is small relative to market volume.
- This bettor is up $177k lifetime and has traded over $4.0M across resolved markets.
- They have positioned across 12 related WTI markets with $233k in activity, suggesting a broader oil-price thesis.
- This is a fresh No buy at 71¢ after the market moved sharply toward Yes over the past day.
$1,027 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
Profitable WTI cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a broad WTI May upside thesis across 16 related markets, despite this individual trade being modest.
- This wallet is up $271k lifetime and has traded over $10.5M on Polymarket.
- They have put $712k across 16 related WTI markets, suggesting a broad oil-price thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- WTI odds are already moving higher, with Yes up about 18 points over the past day.
$2,023 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 44%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 86034018, $112,190 (82% win rate)
- 0x131c...6816 — Outcome 86034018, $30,000 (85% win rate)
- 0xcb7e...d590 — Outcome 86034018, $29,355
- 0x7017...8118 — Outcome 86034018, $16,667
- 0xcbef...9ab0 — Outcome 86034018, $11,843 (71% win rate)
- 0x70bc...0c87 — Outcome 86034018, $10,363 (76% win rate)
- 0xa5b5...0538 — Outcome 86034018, $10,298
- 0xa543...13a1 — Outcome 86034018, $10,255
- 0x5e12...2dff — Outcome 86034018, $10,000
- 0x343f...d4dc — Outcome 86034018, $10,000
Related Theses
Iran will close airspace
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WTI rallies but stays below $110
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal by mid-June
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