Part of: Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
This prediction market asks whether Xiaomi will be added to the U.S. list of Chinese Military Companies under Section 1260H by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves Yes if Xiaomi is formally added by the deadline and No otherwise; PolySpotter tracks $1,179 in smart-money activity, with recent alerts indicating positioning toward No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,025.
Categories: AI, us, USA, Tech, China, Big Tech, Military, Geopolitics, AI Regulation, United States, military
Notable Trades
Whale adding to quiet-market No
A trader with no proven track record added nearly $14k to No across two related markets with almost no recent trading volume, a sizable position in a quiet market.
- Nearly $14,000 went to No in a market with virtually no 24-hour volume.
- The trader added to an existing No position, buying at 81¢ and 84¢; No is now priced at 90¢.
- The wallet also bet in a second market in the same event, though it has no resolved-position history.
$13,875 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable bettor scaling into No
A profitable bettor with a 75% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding nearly $3,000 to No in a relatively thin market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 16 resolved trades and is up $11,610, while buying at odds averaging 47%.
- They added nearly $3,000 to No at 73¢ in a market with only $7,414 of 24-hour volume.
- No has since risen to roughly 88%, supporting the bettor’s direction despite the position already being established.
$1,179 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable bettor scaling into No
A profitable bettor with a 75% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding nearly $3,000 to No in a relatively thin market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 16 resolved trades and is up $11,610, while buying at odds averaging 47%.
- They added nearly $3,000 to No at 73¢ in a market with only $7,414 of 24-hour volume.
- No has since risen to roughly 88%, supporting the bettor’s direction despite the position already being established.
$2,972 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Related Theses
DJI and CATL stay listed
Covers 2 related markets
Xiaomi added, ByteDance stays off-list
Covers 2 related markets
Neither company joins the list
Covers 2 related markets
