Profitable bettor buying NO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Despite a weak trade-size signal, the buyer has a strong 87% resolved-bet record and is putting fresh money on No in a geopolitics market with light recent volume.
Total
$1,274
Trades
1
Win Rate
90%
Wallet P&L
+$745,701
Analysis
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $726k lifetime.
- They bought No at 82¢ on a quiet market where this trade was 76% of 24h volume.
- Entry at 82¢ suggests they see Qassem staying in power as the likely outcome by June 30.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 82¢
Detected May 1, 2026 at 2:29 PM