Part of: Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,807.

Categories: Geopolitics, Israel, Politics, Middle East, Lebanon, World

Notable Trades

70% winner buys quiet NO

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a very quiet geopolitical market, with the trade equal to about 15x the past day's volume.

This bettor wins 70% of resolved bets and is up $38K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 37 events with $175K placed.
The $1.8K No buy was about 15x the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet book.

$1,848 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable bettor buying NO

Despite a weak trade-size signal, the buyer has a strong 87% resolved-bet record and is putting fresh money on No in a geopolitics market with light recent volume.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $726k lifetime.
They bought No at 82¢ on a quiet market where this trade was 76% of 24h volume.
Entry at 82¢ suggests they see Qassem staying in power as the likely outcome by June 30.

$1,274 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

3 winning wallets pile into Yes

Three wallets with very high historical win rates piled into Yes together as this market ripped higher in a relatively thin book, making the coordinated flow worth watching despite the modest dollar size.

Three wallets all bought Yes within about a minute, and two of them win 87% and 90% of their resolved bets.
The market jumped about 17 points and is up more than 40 points this week, so the buying lines up with strong momentum.
This is a thinner market with only about $6.1k liquidity, so a $3.7k coordinated bet can reflect real conviction.

$3,685 on Yes