Profitable cross-market geopolitical bettor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a quiet geopolitical market with a bet far larger than recent daily volume.
Total
$1,800
Trades
1
Win Rate
70%
Wallet P&L
+$39,083
Analysis
- This bettor has won 70% of 295 resolved trades and is up $38k lifetime.
- They specialize across related markets, with 37 events and $173k traded in this pattern.
- The $1.8k No buy was over 7x the market’s 24h volume, signaling conviction in a quiet book.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 75¢
Detected May 3, 2026 at 4:36 AM