Part of: Israel military action against Yemen by...?

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether Israel will initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil, or on an official Yemeni embassy or consulate, by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM Israeli local time. PolySpotter is tracking $2,501 in smart money across 1 signal, including activity from profitable geopolitical and cross-market bettors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,627.

Categories: Middle East, World, Yemen, Israel, Geopolitics, Military Strikes, Regional Spillover, strike, Houthis

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor buying Yes

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the trader has a strong 77% win record across 128 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up about $36.9K lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 16¢, betting against the current 84% No consensus.
  • The $2.5K trade is meaningful versus the market’s $5.7K 24h volume.

$2,501 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

79% winner buying NO

Surface despite the low composite score because this repeat-flagged wallet has a 79% resolved win rate and $24k profit, making the No buy worth tracking.

  • This bettor has won 79% of resolved trades and is up $24,120 lifetime.
  • The wallet has been flagged 5 times historically, suggesting repeat notable positioning rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought No at 77¢ on a liquid geopolitical market, implying confidence the strike does not happen by deadline.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial macro bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate and $253k lifetime profit is buying No against recent Yes momentum.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 170 resolved trades and is up $253k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $571k deployed across 49 events and 63 markets.
  • They bought No at 66¢ despite Yes rising 18.5 points this week, making this a notable contrarian position.

$1,643 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitically meaningful market with strong recent upward momentum.

  • This bettor is up $219K lifetime across 662 resolved markets.
  • They have traded 255 markets across 158 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • Selling No at 73¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 27¢, alongside a 13.5-point weekly price rise.

$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable geopolitical specialist

Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No at 80¢ on a geopolitical market, with an 81% resolved-bet win rate and $570k lifetime profit.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $570k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 54 events with $2.6M placed.
  • Buying No at 80¢ signals confidence that the strike risk is overpriced.

$2,251 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp serial cross-market bettor

Sharp cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and +$570k lifetime P&L bought No on an active geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $570k lifetime.
  • They have traded 155 markets across 54 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 78¢ goes against the recent Yes move, with Yes up 10.5 points today.

$1,169 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial event trader

Sharp profitable wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate and extensive cross-market history bought No on a geopolitics market despite recent Yes momentum.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $570K lifetime.
  • They are a seasoned cross-market trader across 54 events and $2.6M in flagged volume.
  • Buying No at 76¢ goes against a recent Yes rally, suggesting a contrarian view that a strike remains unlikely.

$1,527 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% resolved-bet win rate is fading the sharp move toward Yes by buying No.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 162 resolved bets and is up about $249K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 47 events with over $536K tracked in similar positioning.
  • They bought No at 65¢ after Yes jumped 27 points, suggesting they are fading the recent strike-risk spike.

$1,357 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

82% winner fading spike

Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No at 70¢, fading a major Yes price spike on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $570K lifetime.
  • They have traded 154 markets across 53 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Buying No at 70¢ fades a sharp Yes rally of about 24 points in the past day.

$1,739 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable bettor backing No

A profitable high-volume wallet put $3.1k into No on a quiet geopolitical market, pushing with the recent move toward lower Israel-strike odds.

  • This wallet is up $114k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved bets.
  • The $3.1k No buy was larger than the market’s recent daily volume, showing notable conviction in a quiet market.
  • The trade is already moving the right way, with No bought around 83¢ and now trading near 86¢.

$3,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 49%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $22,323 (64% win rate)
  2. 0xbf4d...33ed No, $14,184 (77% win rate)
  3. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $10,271 (71% win rate)
  4. 0xbd04...fbb0 Yes, $9,773 (72% win rate)
  5. 0xbef6...f2f9 No, $8,457 (38% win rate)
  6. 0x63e3...f341 No, $7,919 (48% win rate)
  7. 0xce71...83bc Yes, $6,321 (70% win rate)
  8. 0x85a8...9281 No, $6,279 (80% win rate)
  9. 0x34ab...3eb5 Yes, $6,212 (36% win rate)
  10. 0x24fc...9fd4 Yes, $6,006

Related Theses

Iran deal by mid-June

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Oil volatility explodes by June

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

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No US-Iran peace deal

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Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

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WTI stays between $90 and $105

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Iran deal unlikely soon

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Hormuz blockade persists

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Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

10dIsrael military action against Yemen by...?$19,627 tracked11 signalsMiddle EastWorldYemenIsraelGeopoliticsMilitary StrikesRegional SpilloverstrikeHouthis
Yes
5¢
No
95¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
97¢
84¢
72¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

6d ago

$2,501 on Yes at 16¢

16¢5¢11¢

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

7d ago

$1,500 on No at 77¢

77¢95¢18¢

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

9d ago

$1,643 on No at 66¢

66¢95¢29¢

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

9d ago

$1,040 on Yes at 27¢

27¢5¢22¢

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

9d ago

$2,251 on No at 80¢

80¢95¢15¢

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

10d ago

$1,169 on No at 78¢

78¢95¢17¢

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

10d ago

$1,527 on No at 76¢

76¢95¢19¢

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

10d ago

$1,357 on No at 65¢

65¢95¢30¢

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

11d ago

$1,739 on No at 70¢

70¢95¢25¢

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

26d ago

$3,100 on No at 83¢

83¢95¢12¢

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

47d ago

$1,800 on No at 75¢

75¢95¢20¢

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Iran deal by mid-June
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