76% winner backing NO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A profitable wallet with a strong 76% record and +31% edge is making a fresh $3,000 bet on No in a long-dated geopolitical market.
Total
$3,000
Trades
1
Win Rate
76%
Wallet P&L
+$3,068
Analysis
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is profitable across 67 prior positions.
- Their past wins came at average 45¢ odds, suggesting they have beaten the market by a wide margin.
- A $3,000 buy on No is large versus the market’s recent daily volume of about $4,000.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 87¢
Detected May 4, 2026 at 9:41 AM