Profitable sharp buying long-shot Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A profitable 75% winner with a strong edge record bought $1k of Yes on a major politics market at 14¢, though the sizing is modest relative to market liquidity.
Total
$1,008
Trades
1
Win Rate
75%
Wallet P&L
+$12,291
Analysis
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved positions and is up $12.3k lifetime.
- Their past wins came at 46¢ on average, so buying a 14¢ long shot suggests they see real mispricing.
- Entry at 14¢ gives roughly a 7x payout if Trump leaves office before 2027.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 14¢
Detected May 4, 2026 at 5:36 PM