What is the Trump out before 2027 prediction market about?

This market covers whether Donald Trump will permanently cease to be President of the United States before the end of 2026. That includes resignation, removal, or any other qualifying departure from office by the market deadline.

When does the Trump out before 2027 market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on events through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If a qualifying resignation or removal is announced before then, the market can resolve to “Yes” immediately.

What would make this market resolve to Yes?

It resolves to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns, is removed from office, or otherwise permanently ceases to be President for any period before the deadline. An announcement before the deadline counts even if the departure takes effect later.

What would make this market resolve to No?

The market resolves to “No” if Donald Trump remains President through the end of the resolution window and no qualifying resignation, removal, or permanent departure is announced by then.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,389 in smart money and 1 smart money signal on this market, including alerts involving profitable sharp activity, high win-rate traders, and repeat cross-market bettors.

Part of: Trump out as President before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?

This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump will resign, be removed, or otherwise permanently cease to be President of the United States by December 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if he leaves office for any period before the deadline, including after an announced resignation or removal, and “No” otherwise. PolySpotter is tracking $1,389 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

17 smart money signals detected, totaling $409,352.

Categories: Elections, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Epstein

Notable Trades

Sharp serial political bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and $331k profit bought No at 90¢ on a liquid political market.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $331k lifetime.
They have traded across 34 related events, suggesting a repeatable political-market edge.
Buying No at 90¢ signals confidence Trump remains president through 2026.

$1,389 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

84% serial cross-market winner

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a modest single-trade size.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $46.8K lifetime.
They have traded 136 markets across 115 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
Buying No at 90¢ is a low-upside favorite bet, but the wallet’s long track record is the signal.

$2,856 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% winner buying long-shot Yes

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with an 84% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes at 10¢ despite the low composite score.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $11.7K lifetime.
Selling No at 90¢ is the same as buying Yes at 10¢, a long-shot position against current market odds.
The wallet has 64 resolved bets, enough history to make the track record meaningful.

$2,143 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

82% serial cross-market bettor

A highly experienced cross-market bettor with an 82% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No at 90¢.

This bettor has won 82% of 912 resolved trades and is up $47K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 112 events and 232 markets.
Buying No at 90¢ is a conservative but clear bet that Trump stays president through 2026.

$2,989 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

82% serial cross-market bettor

A highly experienced cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is re-entering No with a $5.2k bet.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades across 907 bets and is up $46.7k lifetime.
They have traded 232 markets across 112 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
The $5.2k buy at 89¢ backs the already-favored No outcome with fresh conviction.

$5,170 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

81% serial cross-market winner

Proven high-volume cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate is buying $9.1k of No on a major Trump presidency market, though the entry is a heavy favorite.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades across 889 markets and is up about $45k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 112 events and over $6M invested.
This is a fresh $9.1k buy on No at 90¢, reinforcing the market’s favorite side.

$9,145 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

81% serial cross-market bettor

Surfacing because a highly active cross-market trader with an 81% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No, despite the single trade being modest on a liquid market.

This bettor has won 81% of 889 resolved bets and is up about $45K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 112 events and $522K in tracked cross-market flow.
Buying No at 90¢ signals a high-confidence favorite position through the 2026 deadline.

$2,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

81% serial market winner

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $4.45k of No on a liquid Trump presidency market.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades across 883 markets and is up $44.9k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 112 events with $5.9M invested.
The $4.45k No buy at 89¢ shows fresh confidence that Trump remains president through 2026.

$4,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Repeat new-wallet bettor

A 5-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large flagged bets totaling $37k and is now adding a smaller long-shot Yes position on a major political market.

This wallet is only 5 days old but has already made 13 notable large-bet alerts totaling $37k.
The bet targets a major political long shot at 12¢, where a win would pay about 8x.
The market is liquid, so the signal is mainly the wallet’s repeat high-conviction pattern rather than price impact.

$1,200 on Yes

Profitable sharp buying long-shot Yes

A profitable 75% winner with a strong edge record bought $1k of Yes on a major politics market at 14¢, though the sizing is modest relative to market liquidity.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved positions and is up $12.3k lifetime.
Their past wins came at 46¢ on average, so buying a 14¢ long shot suggests they see real mispricing.
Entry at 14¢ gives roughly a 7x payout if Trump leaves office before 2027.

$1,008 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%