80% winner in funded cluster

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Surface because this is a proven 80% winner with positive lifetime P&L, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster signal on a plausible geopolitical thesis.
Total
$1,050
Trades
1
Win Rate
80%
Wallet P&L
+$2,250
Analysis
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades across 204 markets and is up $2,250 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 113 events with $75,527 total tracked volume.
- The wallet is part of an 11-wallet funded cluster, adding weight to the No position.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 84¢
Detected May 14, 2026 at 3:14 AM