Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
34 smart money signals detected, totaling $239,788.
Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Proven serial cross-market winner
A highly profitable 81% win-rate serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a longshot geopolitical market at 12¢.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590K lifetime.
- They have a long track record across 54 events and 158 markets, with $2.8M in cross-market volume.
- Buying Yes at 12¢ signals they see value in a longshot outcome that has already moved up this week.
$2,673 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Proven bettor buying No
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is effectively buying No on a geopolitical market despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
- They effectively bought No at 88¢, betting against a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by June 2026.
- The wallet has been flagged 12 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.
$1,667 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate and $333k lifetime profit bought No into a geopolitics market seeing a volume spike.
- This bettor has won 71% of 90 resolved trades and is up $333k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 26 events with nearly $590k tracked volume.
- They bought No at 77¢ while this market is seeing an 11.9x volume spike.
$2,797 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable linked No buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.
- This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
- Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
- The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.
$11,648 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Proven bettor buying No
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is effectively buying No on a geopolitical market despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
- They effectively bought No at 88¢, betting against a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by June 2026.
- The wallet has been flagged 12 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.
$1,551 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
46-0 bettor buys YES
A 46-0 resolved-bet wallet made a $38k effective BUY Yes during a large volume spike and week-long price move in a plausible geopolitical information market.
- This bettor is 46-for-46 on resolved markets and is making a $38k effective bet on Yes.
- Market activity is surging, with volume running 48x above its historical average.
- Yes has already moved up about 10 points this week, so this trade is joining strong momentum.
$38,452 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
89% winner buying No
Sharp-wallet override: despite a weak alert score, this wallet has an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, now buying No at 88¢.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $5.4k lifetime.
- They bought $2,000 of No at 88¢, backing the view that no permanent peace deal happens by June 2026.
- The market is liquid, so the signal comes mainly from the bettor’s track record rather than market impact.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate and $333k lifetime profit bought No into a geopolitics market seeing a volume spike.
- This bettor has won 71% of 90 resolved trades and is up $333k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 26 events with nearly $590k tracked volume.
- They bought No at 77¢ while this market is seeing an 11.9x volume spike.
$1,693 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable linked No buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.
- This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
- Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
- The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.
$10,643 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable linked No buyer
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.
- This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
- Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
- The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.
$10,482 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Top Holders
- 0xd104...acef — No, $641,636 (90% win rate)
- 0xc15b...38af — No, $499,405 (83% win rate)
- 0x3355...a126 — No, $402,196 (100% win rate)
- 0xe7cb...d447 — Yes, $285,619 (76% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Yes, $234,914 (72% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — Yes, $224,751 (44% win rate)
- 0xe36f...cd91 — No, $190,764 (84% win rate)
- 0xe1e1...d250 — No, $184,837 (100% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $158,322 (48% win rate)
- 0x9604...fc1d — No, $109,177 (83% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran deal in early June
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Iran deal by mid-June
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No Iran deal by June
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