Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Israel and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if an agreement explicitly states that military hostilities have ended or will permanently cease; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,050 in smart money activity and 1 signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,050.

Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah

Notable Trades

80% winner in funded cluster

Surface because this is a proven 80% winner with positive lifetime P&L, backed by a large funded-wallet cluster signal on a plausible geopolitical thesis.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades across 204 markets and is up $2,250 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 113 events with $75,527 total tracked volume.
  • The wallet is part of an 11-wallet funded cluster, adding weight to the No position.

$1,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd426...334a Yes, $33,781 (37% win rate)
  2. 0x079f...28df Yes, $20,712
  3. 0x8e5c...a68a No, $18,784 (78% win rate)
  4. 0x3d3c...e797 No, $14,548 (85% win rate)
  5. 0xe7cb...d447 Yes, $12,767 (82% win rate)
  6. 0x6139...6b7a No, $10,509 (70% win rate)
  7. 0x744c...e37f No, $7,000 (79% win rate)
  8. 0xce1d...1b9b Yes, $5,000 (54% win rate)
  9. 0xd7a5...cdbf No, $3,764
  10. 0x854e...b675 No, $3,599 (100% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

No Israel-Iran peace deal

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

46dIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?$1,050 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsLebanonIran CeasefireIsraelIranIsrael x IranHezbollah
Yes
17¢
No
84¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
88¢
84¢
80¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

2h ago

$1,050 on No at 84¢

84¢84¢

Related Theses