Part of: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

34 smart money signals detected, totaling $239,788.

Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Iran Ceasefire, Israel, Iran, Israel x Iran, Hezbollah, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Proven serial cross-market winner

A highly profitable 81% win-rate serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a longshot geopolitical market at 12¢.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590K lifetime.
  • They have a long track record across 54 events and 158 markets, with $2.8M in cross-market volume.
  • Buying Yes at 12¢ signals they see value in a longshot outcome that has already moved up this week.

$2,673 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven bettor buying No

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is effectively buying No on a geopolitical market despite only a weak new-wallet signal.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
  • They effectively bought No at 88¢, betting against a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by June 2026.
  • The wallet has been flagged 12 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.

$1,667 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate and $333k lifetime profit bought No into a geopolitics market seeing a volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 90 resolved trades and is up $333k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 26 events with nearly $590k tracked volume.
  • They bought No at 77¢ while this market is seeing an 11.9x volume spike.

$2,797 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable linked No buyer

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.

  • This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
  • Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
  • The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.

$11,648 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Proven bettor buying No

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is effectively buying No on a geopolitical market despite only a weak new-wallet signal.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
  • They effectively bought No at 88¢, betting against a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by June 2026.
  • The wallet has been flagged 12 times historically, suggesting repeated notable positioning.

$1,551 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

46-0 bettor buys YES

A 46-0 resolved-bet wallet made a $38k effective BUY Yes during a large volume spike and week-long price move in a plausible geopolitical information market.

  • This bettor is 46-for-46 on resolved markets and is making a $38k effective bet on Yes.
  • Market activity is surging, with volume running 48x above its historical average.
  • Yes has already moved up about 10 points this week, so this trade is joining strong momentum.

$38,452 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

89% winner buying No

Sharp-wallet override: despite a weak alert score, this wallet has an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, now buying No at 88¢.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $5.4k lifetime.
  • They bought $2,000 of No at 88¢, backing the view that no permanent peace deal happens by June 2026.
  • The market is liquid, so the signal comes mainly from the bettor’s track record rather than market impact.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate and $333k lifetime profit bought No into a geopolitics market seeing a volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 90 resolved trades and is up $333k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 26 events with nearly $590k tracked volume.
  • They bought No at 77¢ while this market is seeing an 11.9x volume spike.

$1,693 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable linked No buyer

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.

  • This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
  • Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
  • The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.

$10,643 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Profitable linked No buyer

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No, with a linked wallet cluster adding about $20.6k total to the same thesis.

  • This bettor has made over $1.1M lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
  • Two linked wallets share a funder and have put about $20.6k behind the same No thesis.
  • The trade buys No at 87¢, fading the recent move toward Yes on a major geopolitical market.

$10,482 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd104...acef No, $641,636 (90% win rate)
  2. 0xc15b...38af No, $499,405 (83% win rate)
  3. 0x3355...a126 No, $402,196 (100% win rate)
  4. 0xe7cb...d447 Yes, $285,619 (76% win rate)
  5. 0xbd04...fbb0 Yes, $234,914 (72% win rate)
  6. 0x53e5...6177 Yes, $224,751 (44% win rate)
  7. 0xe36f...cd91 No, $190,764 (84% win rate)
  8. 0xe1e1...d250 No, $184,837 (100% win rate)
  9. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $158,322 (48% win rate)
  10. 0x9604...fc1d No, $109,177 (83% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran deal in early June

Covers 9 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

No Iran deal by June

Covers 8 related markets

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?$239,788 tracked34 signalsGeopoliticsLebanonIran CeasefireIsraelIranIsrael x IranHezbollahPeace Deal
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
102¢
99¢
96¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

14d ago

$2,673 on Yes at 12¢

12¢0¢12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

14d ago

$1,667 on No at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

14d ago

$2,797 on No at 77¢

77¢100¢23¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

14d ago

$11,648 on No at 87¢

87¢100¢13¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

14d ago

$1,551 on No at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

14d ago

$38,452 on Yes at 15¢

15¢0¢15¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

15d ago

$2,000 on No at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

15d ago

$1,693 on No at 77¢

77¢100¢23¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

16d ago

$10,643 on No at 87¢

87¢100¢13¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

16d ago

$10,482 on No at 87¢

87¢100¢13¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

16d ago

$2,472 on Yes at 22¢

22¢0¢22¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

16d ago

$3,847 on No at 77¢

77¢100¢23¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

18d ago

$1,425 on No at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

19d ago

$9,012 on Yes at 12¢

12¢0¢12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

19d ago

$4,597 on Yes at 12¢

12¢0¢12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

19d ago

$8,148 on Yes at 9¢

9¢0¢9¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

19d ago

$3,050 on Yes at 7¢

7¢0¢7¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

20d ago

$9,746 on No at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

14d ago

$36,192 on Yes at 11¢

11¢0¢11¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

20d ago

$1,049 on Yes at 5¢

5¢0¢5¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

28d ago

$1,152 on Yes at 6¢

6¢0¢6¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

30d ago

$2,720 on Yes at 7¢

7¢0¢7¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

34d ago

$2,939 on No at 84¢

84¢100¢16¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

34d ago

$7,619 on No at 82¢

82¢100¢18¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

34d ago

$1,431 on No at 82¢

82¢100¢18¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

35d ago

$1,480 on Yes at 18¢

18¢0¢18¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

36d ago

$18,244 on Yes at 17¢

17¢0¢17¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

36d ago

$10,224 on Yes at 17¢

17¢0¢17¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

41d ago

$17,206 on No at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

42d ago

$4,696 on Yes at 15¢

15¢0¢15¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

44d ago

$2,901 on Yes at 13¢

13¢0¢13¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

45d ago

$3,261 on No at 87¢

87¢100¢13¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

46d ago

$1,720 on No at 86¢

86¢100¢14¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

48d ago

$1,050 on No at 84¢

84¢100¢16¢

Related Theses