Sharp cluster buying No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Four wallets bought nearly $10k of No, led by highly profitable cross-market traders with 89% and 75% win records as the market has moved sharply toward No.
Total
$9,921
Trades
4
Analysis
- A bettor who wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $182k is part of this No cluster.
- Four wallets bought nearly $10k of No while the market has moved 26 points against Yes today.
- Another wallet in the cluster wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $75k lifetime.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 44¢
Detected May 22, 2026 at 11:02 PM