Linked cluster buying rebound

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Four wallets, including a linked pair and a serial cross-market trader, are buying Yes together after a sharp selloff in a geopolitically sensitive market.
Total
$5,345
Trades
4
Analysis
- Four wallets bought the same side, with two sharing a funder, signaling coordinated conviction.
- One participant is a serial cross-market trader across 26 events with a 67% win rate.
- They are buying after Yes fell 23.5 points in a day, suggesting a contrarian rebound bet.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 62¢
Detected May 23, 2026 at 12:14 AM