Sharp bettor buying contrarian No

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No against a heavily moved market, making this a worthwhile copy-trade candidate despite modest size.
Total
$1,075
Trades
1
Win Rate
84%
Wallet P&L
+$1,122,890
Analysis
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $25.7K lifetime.
- They are buying No at 19¢ after the market moved strongly toward Yes this week.
- Entry at 19¢ implies about a 5x payout if Paxton fails to win the runoff by 9% or more.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 19¢
Detected May 25, 2026 at 4:27 AM