Part of: Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,150.

Categories: Primaries, Paxton, Politics, Texas Senate, Elections, Cornyn, US Election, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume cross-market bettor bought Yes in a relatively thin political market with a trade larger than the market’s entire prior 24h volume.

  • This bettor wins 68% of resolved bets and is up $747k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 89 events with over $1.0M in cross-market activity, suggesting a repeatable research process.
  • This $4.15k Yes buy was 151% of the market’s prior 24h volume, a large conviction bet in a thin order book.

$4,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc7e5...2d3a No, $10,738 (81% win rate)
  2. 0xecaa...77a9 Yes, $7,490 (68% win rate)
  3. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $4,183
  4. 0xdb97...eee8 Yes, $1,805 (53% win rate)
  5. 0x9fc1...0c67 No, $1,704
  6. 0xe8c4...395d Yes, $1,683 (97% win rate)
  7. 0x66f9...adb9 Yes, $1,201
  8. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $1,023 (55% win rate)
  9. 0x92a3...4a7d Yes, $988
  10. 0x784f...5df9 Yes, $862 (86% win rate)

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Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?

ResolvedTexas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory$4,150 tracked1 signalPrimariesPaxtonPoliticsTexas SenateElectionsCornynUS ElectionRewards 50, 4.5, 100
Yes
83¢
No
17¢

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “Yes
93¢
54¢
16¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?

4h ago

$4,150 on Yes at 83¢

83¢83¢

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