Part of: Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,443.
Categories: Primaries, Paxton, Politics, Texas Senate, Elections, Cornyn, US Election, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly experienced cross-market trader with 869 resolved bets and $736k lifetime profit bought Yes at 71¢ on a political market.
- This bettor has 869 resolved bets and is up $736k lifetime.
- They have traded across 91 events and 138 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Buying Yes at 71¢ implies they see Paxton’s runoff margin clearing 9% as underpriced.
$3,693 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
95% winner buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with a 95% resolved-bet record is taking a $3.5k contrarian No position against a rising market.
- This bettor has won 18 of 19 resolved bets and is up $45.6k lifetime.
- They bought $3.5k of No at 23¢ while the market prices Yes near 78%.
- The market has moved +17 points toward Yes this week, making this a sharp contrarian entry.
$3,525 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Sharp bettor buying contrarian No
Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No against a heavily moved market, making this a worthwhile copy-trade candidate despite modest size.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $25.7K lifetime.
- They are buying No at 19¢ after the market moved strongly toward Yes this week.
- Entry at 19¢ implies about a 5x payout if Paxton fails to win the runoff by 9% or more.
$1,075 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market bettor bought Yes in a relatively thin political market with a trade larger than the market’s entire prior 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 68% of resolved bets and is up $747k lifetime.
- They have traded across 89 events with over $1.0M in cross-market activity, suggesting a repeatable research process.
- This $4.15k Yes buy was 151% of the market’s prior 24h volume, a large conviction bet in a thin order book.
$4,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 13816265, $12,016
- 0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 13816265, $9,633 (83% win rate)
- 0xc7e5...2d3a — Outcome 13816265, $5,225 (82% win rate)
- 0x944e...8c94 — Outcome 13816265, $3,000 (67% win rate)
- 0xc4fd...fe19 — Outcome 13816265, $2,149 (95% win rate)
- 0x52a4...0294 — Outcome 13816265, $1,761 (85% win rate)
- 0x9fc1...0c67 — Outcome 13816265, $1,704
- 0x2c41...133e — Outcome 13816265, $1,692 (61% win rate)
- 0x9182...3368 — Outcome 13816265, $975 (41% win rate)
- 0x95cd...b9a8 — Outcome 13816265, $909
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