Part of: Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,150.
Categories: Primaries, Paxton, Politics, Texas Senate, Elections, Cornyn, US Election, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market bettor bought Yes in a relatively thin political market with a trade larger than the market’s entire prior 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 68% of resolved bets and is up $747k lifetime.
- They have traded across 89 events with over $1.0M in cross-market activity, suggesting a repeatable research process.
- This $4.15k Yes buy was 151% of the market’s prior 24h volume, a large conviction bet in a thin order book.
$4,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xc7e5...2d3a — No, $10,738 (81% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $7,490 (68% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $4,183
- 0xdb97...eee8 — Yes, $1,805 (53% win rate)
- 0x9fc1...0c67 — No, $1,704
- 0xe8c4...395d — Yes, $1,683 (97% win rate)
- 0x66f9...adb9 — Yes, $1,201
- 0x5a21...9318 — Yes, $1,023 (55% win rate)
- 0x92a3...4a7d — Yes, $988
- 0x784f...5df9 — Yes, $862 (86% win rate)
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