Linked cluster buying No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Surfacing because five wallets coordinated on the No side, with linked funding and participation from a profitable 75% bettor despite mixed records across the cluster.
Total
$13,686
Trades
7
Analysis
- Five wallets put $13.7k on No, including two wallets that share a funder.
- One No buyer wins 75% of resolved bets and is up about $45k lifetime.
- The cluster is betting against the 88% Yes consensus, implying a contrarian view on ceasefire risk.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 14¢
Detected May 25, 2026 at 10:20 PM