Sharp cluster buying No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Six wallets, including several highly profitable serial event traders, bought $26k of No as the market repriced sharply toward a ceasefire break.
Total
$26,333
Trades
14
Analysis
- Two bettors in this cluster win around 78–80% of resolved trades and are up $398k and $2.3M lifetime.
- Six wallets bought $26k of No in the same burst, helping push No from much lower levels to 87%.
- Several wallets have long cross-market histories, including one with $4.98M traded across 83 events.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 80¢
Detected May 25, 2026 at 11:07 PM