Profitable serial event bettor

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
A profitable serial cross-market trader put a $1k No bet into a very thin geopolitical market, more than 4x the prior 24h volume.
Total
$1,016
Trades
1
Win Rate
69%
Wallet P&L
+$21,750
Analysis
- This bettor has won 69% of 320 resolved bets and is up $21.8k lifetime.
- Their $1k No bet was over 4x the market’s entire 24h volume.
- The market is thin with a wide spread, so this looks like a deliberate position rather than routine flow.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 68¢
Detected May 26, 2026 at 9:28 PM