Profitable serial cross-market bettor

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 15, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate is taking a small but asymmetric 3¢ Yes position.
Total
$1,078
Trades
1
Win Rate
71%
Wallet P&L
+$736,338
Analysis
- This bettor has won 70% of 71 resolved bets and is up $289k lifetime.
- They have traded 102 markets across 47 events, suggesting an experienced cross-market thesis trader.
- Entry at 3¢ is a long-shot bet with large upside if Strait traffic normalizes by the deadline.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 3¢
Detected June 4, 2026 at 5:01 PM