Profitable serial macro trader

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is buying No on a relatively quiet geopolitical market with a bet that is meaningful versus 24h volume.
Total
$2,625
Trades
1
Win Rate
61%
Wallet P&L
+$350,630
Analysis
- This bettor is up $377K lifetime across 889 resolved trades.
- They have traded 76 markets across 33 events, suggesting a recurring cross-market thesis style.
- The $2.6K No buy is large for a quiet market with only about $4.3K in 24h volume.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 86¢
Detected June 7, 2026 at 7:56 AM