Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will announce that all ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanon by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $5,300 in smart money activity on this market, including a recent repeat whale buying YES. The market resolves based on an Israeli announcement of withdrawal, not necessarily on whether all control or incursions have ended.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,300.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

New repeat whale buying YES

A 28-day-old repeat large bettor is putting meaningful size into a relatively quiet geopolitical market, buying Yes at an effective average around 9.4¢.

  • This 28-day-old wallet has now made 10 large flagged bets totaling about $86.6k.
  • They bought $5.3k of Yes, roughly 70% of the market’s 24h volume.
  • Average entry is about 9.4¢, while the market is now around 15¢.

$5,300 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x079f...28df Yes, $13,709
  2. 0x8d4b...07cb No, $11,905 (44% win rate)
  3. 0xd519...932c Yes, $7,487 (18% win rate)
  4. 0x6deb...eb68 No, $5,149 (100% win rate)
  5. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $4,586 (63% win rate)
  6. 0x9ca1...13b5 No, $4,000 (58% win rate)
  7. 0x60a9...5a71 Yes, $2,509 (49% win rate)
  8. 0x2e61...19bd No, $2,410 (41% win rate)
  9. 0x6992...6c1d Yes, $2,200 (33% win rate)
  10. 0x3e6a...e86d Yes, $1,284

Related Theses

Israel exits Lebanon by June

Covers 2 related markets

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

56dIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?$5,300 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranLebanonIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
16¢
No
85¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Price History — “No
87¢
83¢
78¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

2h ago

$5,300 on Yes at 9¢

9¢16¢7¢

Related Theses