Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $36,533.
Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable linked cross-market trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader, backed by linked-wallet activity, is buying the 8¢ long-shot Yes side on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor is up $1.19M lifetime across 1,395 resolved bets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 121 events and $8.0M of tracked volume.
- Two linked wallets from the same funder have put about $3.7K into this related view.
$1,264 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
90% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: despite only a weak size/new-wallet signal, this bettor has a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor has won 26 of 29 resolved trades and is up about $5.3k lifetime.
- They put $3,000 on No at 88¢, backing the current market favorite with a proven record.
- The market is liquid, so the main signal is the wallet’s strong track record rather than trade size.
$2,953 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
90% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: despite only a weak size/new-wallet signal, this bettor has a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor has won 26 of 29 resolved trades and is up about $5.3k lifetime.
- They put $3,000 on No at 88¢, backing the current market favorite with a proven record.
- The market is liquid, so the main signal is the wallet’s strong track record rather than trade size.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Elite serial bettor buys NO
A highly proven serial cross-market trader with 85% wins and $1.38M lifetime profit bought nearly $15k of No.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.38M lifetime.
- They have traded 166 markets across 111 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- A $15k buy at 87¢ backs the already-favored No side with meaningful conviction.
$14,967 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
88% winner buying No
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 88% resolved win rate with positive lifetime P&L and is taking a fresh No position on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $3k lifetime.
- They bought No at 82¢, implying confidence Israel will not announce a full Lebanon withdrawal by the deadline.
- The market is active but still has only $32k liquidity, so a $2.4k entry is meaningful size.
$2,430 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
88% winner buying YES
Sharp wallet with an 88% win rate and $241k lifetime profit bought Yes while also positioning across related Lebanon withdrawal markets.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $241k lifetime.
- They bought $2.3k of Yes at 22¢ while also positioning across a related market.
- The market has moved up 5 points today, suggesting recent momentum behind the same view.
$2,251 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian Yes position in a geopolitical market with relatively quiet 24h volume.
- This bettor is up $367k across 898 resolved bets, with a 62% hit rate.
- They have traded 86 markets across 37 events, suggesting a repeat thesis-driven trader.
- Selling No at 85¢ is effectively buying Yes at 15¢, above the current 13¢ market price.
$1,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is buying No on a relatively quiet geopolitical market with a bet that is meaningful versus 24h volume.
- This bettor is up $377K lifetime across 889 resolved trades.
- They have traded 76 markets across 33 events, suggesting a recurring cross-market thesis style.
- The $2.6K No buy is large for a quiet market with only about $4.3K in 24h volume.
$2,625 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
New repeat whale buying YES
A 28-day-old repeat large bettor is putting meaningful size into a relatively quiet geopolitical market, buying Yes at an effective average around 9.4¢.
- This 28-day-old wallet has now made 10 large flagged bets totaling about $86.6k.
- They bought $5.3k of Yes, roughly 70% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Average entry is about 9.4¢, while the market is now around 15¢.
$5,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 22%
Top Holders
- 0x3e6a...e86d — Outcome 37916433, $32,901
- 0x079f...28df — Outcome 37916433, $30,468 (22% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 37916433, $20,000 (69% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 37916433, $19,982 (76% win rate)
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 37916433, $16,667 (18% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — Outcome 37916433, $15,797 (60% win rate)
- 0xf15a...4c09 — Outcome 37916433, $15,080 (100% win rate)
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Outcome 37916433, $15,000 (20% win rate)
- 0x80f1...3ccd — Outcome 37916433, $10,000 (95% win rate)
- 0x4a41...242a — Outcome 37916433, $10,000 (49% win rate)
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