Part of: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will announce that all ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanon by July 31, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $5,300 in smart money activity on this market, including a recent repeat whale buying YES. The market resolves based on an Israeli announcement of withdrawal, not necessarily on whether all control or incursions have ended.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,300.
Categories: Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
New repeat whale buying YES
A 28-day-old repeat large bettor is putting meaningful size into a relatively quiet geopolitical market, buying Yes at an effective average around 9.4¢.
- This 28-day-old wallet has now made 10 large flagged bets totaling about $86.6k.
- They bought $5.3k of Yes, roughly 70% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Average entry is about 9.4¢, while the market is now around 15¢.
$5,300 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x079f...28df — Yes, $13,709
- 0x8d4b...07cb — No, $11,905 (44% win rate)
- 0xd519...932c — Yes, $7,487 (18% win rate)
- 0x6deb...eb68 — No, $5,149 (100% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $4,586 (63% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $4,000 (58% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — Yes, $2,509 (49% win rate)
- 0x2e61...19bd — No, $2,410 (41% win rate)
- 0x6992...6c1d — Yes, $2,200 (33% win rate)
- 0x3e6a...e86d — Yes, $1,284
Related Theses
Israel exits Lebanon by June
Covers 2 related markets
