Profitable serial event trader

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is taking the Yes side on a geopolitical ceasefire market at 16¢.
Total
$1,893
Trades
1
Win Rate
62%
Wallet P&L
+$55,809
Analysis
- This bettor has won 64% of 1,608 resolved trades and is up about $255k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 168 events with over $1.6M tracked in similar positioning.
- Selling No at 84¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, a low-cost bet on the ceasefire ending.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 16¢
Detected June 11, 2026 at 8:20 AM