Part of: Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

This Polymarket market asks whether the U.S. will publicly and officially announce by June 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. It resolves “Yes” only if the statement clearly indicates there is no longer a commitment to refrain from military hostilities; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $5,119 in smart money and 1 signal on this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,119.

Categories: Iran, Geopolitics, Middle East, Trump, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 895 resolved bets and +$374k lifetime P&L bought $5.1k of No on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 62% of 895 resolved bets and is up $374k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 34 events and 81 markets, suggesting a repeat cross-market thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 89¢ implies they see a ceasefire breakdown announcement as very unlikely.

$5,119 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Top Holders

  1. 0xcede...a37c Yes, $11,089 (25% win rate)
  2. 0xc658...64ac No, $10,799 (100% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $7,873 (81% win rate)
  4. 0xe738...df65 No, $7,500 (64% win rate)
  5. 0x7e25...4c5a Yes, $6,895
  6. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $5,916 (62% win rate)
  7. 0x86e9...4cdf Yes, $4,817 (97% win rate)
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $4,714 (47% win rate)
  9. 0xb79c...1ccf Yes, $3,800
  10. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $3,516 (52% win rate)

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Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

5dTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?$5,119 tracked1 signalIranGeopoliticsMiddle EastTrumpIran Ceasefire
Yes
10¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

Price History — “No
96¢
90¢
84¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

2h ago

$5,119 on No at 89¢

89¢91¢2¢

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