New wallet backs No
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
A brand-new wallet placed a nearly $5k No bet on a near-deadline diplomatic disclosure market, making a sizable conviction trade despite having no track record.
Total
$4,974
Trades
1
Wallet P&L
+$0
Analysis
- A fresh wallet put nearly $5k on No with the market close to its deadline.
- The bet is large relative to the $9.1k liquidity, suggesting meaningful conviction.
- Entry at 66¢ implies the bettor sees the text release as unlikely despite Yes moving up 18 points today.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 66¢
Detected June 17, 2026 at 1:38 AM