Proven serial cross-market winner

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A highly profitable 81% win-rate serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a longshot geopolitical market at 12¢.
Total
$2,673
Trades
1
Win Rate
82%
Wallet P&L
+$835,890
Analysis
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590K lifetime.
- They have a long track record across 54 events and 158 markets, with $2.8M in cross-market volume.
- Buying Yes at 12¢ signals they see value in a longshot outcome that has already moved up this week.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 12¢
Detected June 17, 2026 at 6:08 PM