Profitable cross-market whale

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes cheaply before a major move higher in a thin U.S.-Iran deal market.
Total
$3,013
Trades
2
Win Rate
57%
Wallet P&L
+$853,776
Analysis
- This bettor is up $732k lifetime across 188 resolved bets.
- They bought Yes at 5–10¢ before the market jumped to 34¢.
- The $3k position is large versus $6.4k liquidity, suggesting real conviction.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 7¢
Detected June 20, 2026 at 1:54 PM