Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether Abbas Araghchi will sign a written agreement involving both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to Yes only if Araghchi signs in an official capacity; otherwise it resolves to No. PolySpotter is tracking $3,043 in smart money activity, with recent sharp-wallet signals buying No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,470.

Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

Sharp wallet buying No

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No across related Iran-deal markets, making this a copyable directional thesis.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.5k lifetime.
  • They put $4.8k on No across two related markets in the same Iran-deal event.
  • Buying around 72¢ suggests confidence that this agreement does not get signed by the deadline.

$3,043 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

79% winner buying No

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win record is buying No on a politically meaningful Iran-deal market while also positioning across related markets.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved bets and is up $6.5K lifetime.
  • They have been flagged 7 times before and are positioning across 2 related markets.
  • Entry at 71¢ implies they see No as a high-probability outcome despite recent Yes momentum.

$1,581 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp wallet buying No

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No across related Iran-deal markets, making this a copyable directional thesis.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.5k lifetime.
  • They put $4.8k on No across two related markets in the same Iran-deal event.
  • Buying around 72¢ suggests confidence that this agreement does not get signed by the deadline.

$4,833 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable cross-market whale

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes cheaply before a major move higher in a thin U.S.-Iran deal market.

  • This bettor is up $732k lifetime across 188 resolved bets.
  • They bought Yes at 5–10¢ before the market jumped to 34¢.
  • The $3k position is large versus $6.4k liquidity, suggesting real conviction.

$3,013 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

Top Holders

  1. 0x162f...798d No, $7,064 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x7447...a16d No, $2,694 (58% win rate)
  3. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $2,357 (47% win rate)
  4. 0x21ff...0d71 Yes, $1,963
  5. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $1,925
  6. 0x4550...2398 Yes, $1,850
  7. 0xc4a8...5943 Yes, $1,448
  8. 0x69c9...3b29 Yes, $1,391 (75% win rate)
  9. 0xe397...bfcb Yes, $1,165 (85% win rate)
  10. 0x4478...02a4 No, $758 (57% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by June end

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Iran deal after July

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US-Iran deal announced soon

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US-Iran meeting around June 20

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Crude oil tops $175 by June

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Iran ceasefire survives late May

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Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

30dWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal?$12,470 tracked4 signalsTrumpPeace DealgeopolitcsIranU.S. x IranPolitics
Yes
6¢
No
94¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
97¢
94¢
91¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

10d ago

$3,043 on No at 72¢

72¢94¢22¢

Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

11d ago

$1,581 on No at 71¢

71¢94¢23¢

Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

11d ago

$4,833 on No at 72¢

72¢94¢22¢

Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

11d ago

$3,013 on Yes at 7¢

7¢6¢1¢

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