Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,470.
Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics
Notable Trades
Sharp wallet buying No
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No across related Iran-deal markets, making this a copyable directional thesis.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.5k lifetime.
- They put $4.8k on No across two related markets in the same Iran-deal event.
- Buying around 72¢ suggests confidence that this agreement does not get signed by the deadline.
$3,043 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
79% winner buying No
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved-bet win record is buying No on a politically meaningful Iran-deal market while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved bets and is up $6.5K lifetime.
- They have been flagged 7 times before and are positioning across 2 related markets.
- Entry at 71¢ implies they see No as a high-probability outcome despite recent Yes momentum.
$1,581 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Sharp wallet buying No
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No across related Iran-deal markets, making this a copyable directional thesis.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.5k lifetime.
- They put $4.8k on No across two related markets in the same Iran-deal event.
- Buying around 72¢ suggests confidence that this agreement does not get signed by the deadline.
$4,833 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable cross-market whale
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes cheaply before a major move higher in a thin U.S.-Iran deal market.
- This bettor is up $732k lifetime across 188 resolved bets.
- They bought Yes at 5–10¢ before the market jumped to 34¢.
- The $3k position is large versus $6.4k liquidity, suggesting real conviction.
$3,013 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%
Top Holders
- 0x6b0e...e3ea — Outcome 11389239, $2,322
- 0x4550...2398 — Outcome 11389239, $1,850
- 0x9ad0...bf3d — Outcome 11389239, $1,479 (66% win rate)
- 0xc4a8...5943 — Outcome 11389239, $1,448
- 0x69c9...3b29 — Outcome 11389239, $1,391 (75% win rate)
- 0x0777...4b7f — Outcome 11389239, $644
- 0xbbe3...5b92 — Outcome 11389239, $485
- 0x86e9...4cdf — Outcome 11389239, $456 (92% win rate)
- 0xc602...7fc1 — Outcome 11389239, $384 (43% win rate)
- 0x3879...d8c3 — Outcome 11389239, $365
Related Theses
Iran deal by June end
Covers 3 related markets
WTI hits $90 but not $95
Covers 4 related markets
Claude Fable returns by July
Covers 3 related markets
US-Iran deal announced soon
Covers 8 related markets
GPT-6 won't release by August
Covers 2 related markets
Iran deal after July
Covers 11 related markets
US-Iran meeting around June 20
Covers 11 related markets
Anthropic won’t extend Fable access
Covers 1 related market
Fed will hike rates in 2026
Covers 1 related market
WTI peaks near $80 in July
Covers 7 related markets
