Sharp wallet buying No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No across related Iran-deal markets, making this a copyable directional thesis.
Total
$3,043
Trades
2
Win Rate
72%
Wallet P&L
+$274,247
Analysis
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $6.5k lifetime.
- They put $4.8k on No across two related markets in the same Iran-deal event.
- Buying around 72¢ suggests confidence that this agreement does not get signed by the deadline.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 72¢
Detected June 22, 2026 at 1:22 AM