Profitable political sharp fades favorite
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought No on Claire Valdez at 19¢ despite the market pricing Yes around 80%.
Total
$2,762
Trades
1
Win Rate
80%
Wallet P&L
+$4,217,133
Analysis
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $3.9M lifetime.
- They are a serious cross-market trader, with activity across 145 events and $5.7M traded.
- Buying No at 19¢ is a clear fade of the 80% favorite, implying they see meaningful downside in Valdez’s nomination odds.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 19¢
Detected June 22, 2026 at 4:19 PM