Part of: NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,762.

Categories: Elections, Politics, Primaries, primary elections, House Primary, New York Primary, Democratic Primary, June 23 Primaries

Notable Trades

Profitable political sharp fades favorite

Sharp, highly profitable cross-market trader bought No on Claire Valdez at 19¢ despite the market pricing Yes around 80%.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up about $3.9M lifetime.
They are a serious cross-market trader, with activity across 145 events and $5.7M traded.
Buying No at 19¢ is a clear fade of the 80% favorite, implying they see meaningful downside in Valdez’s nomination odds.

$2,762 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 18152721, $17,537
0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 18152721, $15,440 (80% win rate)
0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 18152721, $14,185 (72% win rate)
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 18152721, $4,000 (48% win rate)
0xe32b...626e — Outcome 18152721, $3,000
0x048a...9be4 — Outcome 18152721, $1,000
0x897a...4194 — Outcome 18152721, $838
0xd217...b3f3 — Outcome 18152721, $500
0xcdbf...1926 — Outcome 18152721, $479
0xc01f...cd8e — Outcome 18152721, $435 (59% win rate)

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Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?

ResolvedNY-07 Democratic Primary Winner$2,762 tracked1 signalElectionsPoliticsPrimariesprimary electionsHouse PrimaryNew York PrimaryDemocratic PrimaryJune 23 Primaries

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.