Sharp cluster buying No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Four wallets, including one with 921 resolved bets and a 73% win rate, are aligned on No around 9-11¢ in a major geopolitics market after a sharp weekly move, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth watching.
Total
$6,736
Trades
5
Analysis
- Four wallets piled into No within minutes, with about $6.7k total buying against an 88% Yes market.
- One wallet has 73% wins over 921 resolved bets, and another is up about $132k lifetime across 114 resolved bets.
- They entered at 9-11¢ after the market jumped 30 points this week, suggesting a view that invasion odds are still overstated.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 11¢
Detected April 4, 2026 at 11:19 PM