Part of: US forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $473,224.
Categories: Trump, Geopolitics, Iran, Military Strikes, Middle East
Notable Trades
Pro cross-market event bettor
A proven high-volume trader with a 67% win rate is making a fresh, event-wide bullish bet across four related Iran markets, though the entry here is expensive at 90¢.
- This bettor has won 396 of 591 resolved trades and is up about $193k lifetime.
- They have put nearly $98k across 4 related Iran-event markets, showing a clear event-wide thesis.
- This is a fresh Yes buy at 90¢ in a very active market, so the edge likely comes from event reading rather than moving a thin book.
$5,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
83% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A proven high-win-rate cross-market trader reopened a fresh Yes position at 87¢ in a fast-rising geopolitics market and is already marked up as the contract pushed to 92¢.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up about $273k across 53 settled markets.
- They trade heavily across related events — 76 markets across 41 events with more than $1.6M deployed.
- Bought Yes at 87¢ and the market is already at 92¢ after a 33-point move over the past week.
$7,405 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Proven geopolitics sharp
A highly profitable wallet with a 77% win rate is reopening a fresh position on a major geopolitics market, and its cross-market positioning suggests an intentional event thesis rather than a random trade.
- This bettor wins 77% of their trades and is up $1.67M across more than 1,000 resolved bets
- They are making a fresh buy after previously closing positions in this market, which points to renewed conviction
- The bet is part of a $19.4k cross-market thesis in the same event, suggesting a coordinated view rather than a one-off punt
$2,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
75% win-rate macro bettor
A proven high-volume bettor with a 75% win rate across 813 resolved markets is buying into a fast-rising geopolitical market, making this worth tracking despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor has won 613 of 813 resolved markets and is up $35k overall
- They trade across 122 events and 263 markets, which points to a repeatable macro-news process
- They bought Yes at 82¢ in a market up 23 points this week, backing continued momentum in a major news-driven market
$1,230 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
7-wallet geopolitics cluster
A profitable serial cross-market trader from a 7-wallet funded cluster just sold Yes at 83¢, which translates to a fresh BUY No view at 17¢ on a fast-moving geopolitics market.
- Seven linked wallets share the same funder, a strong sign one actor is deploying capital with conviction.
- This trader has a 69% win rate across 330 resolved bets and has traded 127 related markets across 68 events.
- Selling Yes at 83¢ is equivalent to buying No around 17¢, while the market has surged 17 points in a day.
$15,464 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
81% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A profitable wallet with an 81% win rate is making a large fresh bet into a fast-moving geopolitics market, suggesting a thesis worth watching despite the rich 85¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 81% of their resolved trades and is up about $106k overall
- They just put nearly $17k on Yes in a geopolitics market that is up 18 points in a day
- Buying at 85¢ shows strong conviction even after a sharp move, with about $23k deployed across related markets
$16,983 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Linked geopolitical bettor
A linked 3-wallet cluster is buying into a fast-moving geopolitics market, and this wallet also has a large proven history with 562 resolved bets and positive P&L.
- Three wallets funded by the same address are lining up on the same side here.
- This wallet has 562 resolved bets and is up about $25.6k overall.
- The market is already moving fast, with Yes up 23 points in a day and 30 points in a week.
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Event specialist reloading Yes
A high-volume geopolitical specialist with a large multi-market thesis is buying back into this event despite already lofty odds, suggesting continued conviction rather than a random whale trade.
- This wallet has bet across 168 related markets and is up about $455k overall.
- They put nearly $58k across 4 markets in this event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This buy came at 87¢ after the market already surged, signaling they still see more upside in Yes.
$13,194 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
81% win-rate geopolitics bettor
Profitable high-win-rate wallet is making a sizable follow-on bet on a geopolitics market that has already been moving sharply higher, suggesting conviction rather than routine flow.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $106k across 32 settled markets
- They just bought $8.7k of Yes at 87¢ after this market jumped 20 points in a day
- They have also bet the same event in another market, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
$8,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
7-wallet geopolitical cluster
A historically profitable serial cross-market trader from a 7-wallet funded cluster just made a fresh $25.5k buy on Yes in a major geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated high-conviction positioning rather than routine flow.
- 7 linked wallets share the same funder, a strong sign of coordinated conviction on this thesis.
- This bettor has won 69% of 330 resolved bets and is up about $63.8k lifetime.
- The wallet put $25.5k into Yes at 85¢ in a very active geopolitical market after previously closing older positions, making this look like fresh positioning rather than routine profit-taking.
$25,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Top Holders
- 0xb4a0...54b2 — Outcome 76533108, $7,456,820
- 0x950e...f8e5 — Outcome 76533108, $4,125,001 (83% win rate)
- 0x021e...67eb — Outcome 76533108, $3,567,500
- 0xa551...e050 — Outcome 76533108, $3,358,593
- 0x343c...29d0 — Outcome 76533108, $2,366,825 (33% win rate)
- 0x5dae...b108 — Outcome 76533108, $2,010,334
- 0x125a...e0a7 — Outcome 76533108, $1,021,248
- 0xb790...4466 — Outcome 76533108, $854,836
- 0x7983...857c — Outcome 76533108, $811,510
- 0x95cc...fffd — Outcome 76533108, $695,188
