90% winner buying No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
Total
$1,500
Trades
1
Win Rate
90%
Wallet P&L
+$5,710
Analysis
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up about $5.5K lifetime.
- They put $1.5K on No at 87¢ in a geopolitical market where informed views may matter.
- Entry at 87¢ implies a high-conviction view that an IAEA visit to these sites does not happen by July 31.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 87¢
Detected June 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM