6-wallet contrarian cluster
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Six wallets collectively flipped into the same bearish Iran-invasion view, including one serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate and a profitable 75% win-rate wallet, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth watching despite mixed wallet quality.
Total
$26,123
Trades
7
Analysis
- Six wallets all bet against a US ground entry into Iran, putting $26k behind the same view in a single window.
- One wallet wins 75% of resolved bets and another is a serial cross-market trader across 80 events with a 75% win rate.
- Most of the flow came from selling Yes at 84-88¢, which is equivalent to buying No around 12-16¢ in a market still pricing invasion odds near 90%.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 14¢
Detected April 3, 2026 at 8:43 PM