Part of: US forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
This Polymarket asks whether active US military personnel will physically enter Iran’s land territory at any point by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes only if US forces are on Iranian terrestrial territory; airspace, maritime entry, intelligence operatives, and most non-combat personnel do not count. PolySpotter tracks the latest prediction market odds alongside smart money activity, with $808,487 in tracked smart money and 36 signals so far.
36 smart money signals detected, totaling $808,487.
Categories: Trump, Geopolitics, Iran, Military Strikes, Middle East
Notable Trades
93% win-rate macro bettor
A serial cross-market bettor with a 93% win rate is adding a high-confidence Yes position in a major geopolitics market, making this worth surfacing despite the rich entry price.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 1,081 markets and has tracked this kind of event across 71 events.
- They put $55.8k across 3 related markets in the same event, showing a coordinated geopolitical thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 88¢ in a deep, active market, signaling conviction even after a 22-point move over the past week.
$3,027 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
92% win-rate bettor
A high-win-rate wallet with over 1,100 resolved bets is buying No at 12¢ on a major geopolitics market, making this modest-sized trade worth tracking despite the otherwise weak single signal.
- This bettor wins 92% of their trades across 1,146 resolved markets
- They bought No at 12¢ on a heavily traded geopolitics market after a sharp 1-week move
- This alert is light on signals, but the wallet’s long track record makes the entry worth watching
$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Sharp linked cluster fading hype
A proven 81% win-rate trader from a 5-wallet linked cluster sold expensive Yes shares at 90¢, which translates to a copyable BUY No at 10¢ on a fast-rising geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved markets across 189 bets and is part of a 5-wallet linked cluster.
- They sold Yes at 90¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 10¢ against a market that has already surged 15 points in a day.
- The market is liquid, so this looks like a deliberate view that current war odds are overstretched rather than a forced trade.
$3,811 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
75% winner buying No
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate added a fresh No position at 17¢ on a major geopolitics market, and the price has already moved in their favor to 10¢.
- This bettor has won 75% of 982 resolved markets and is up $173k lifetime.
- They trade related event markets at scale across 80 events, which suggests a repeatable edge on geopolitical themes.
- Bought No at 17¢ and the market is now 10¢, so the trade is already moving their way.
$7,016 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
6-wallet contrarian cluster
Six wallets collectively flipped into the same bearish Iran-invasion view, including one serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate and a profitable 75% win-rate wallet, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth watching despite mixed wallet quality.
- Six wallets all bet against a US ground entry into Iran, putting $26k behind the same view in a single window.
- One wallet wins 75% of resolved bets and another is a serial cross-market trader across 80 events with a 75% win rate.
- Most of the flow came from selling Yes at 84-88¢, which is equivalent to buying No around 12-16¢ in a market still pricing invasion odds near 90%.
$26,123 on No
94% winner in funded cluster
A proven 94% win-rate trader from a 5-wallet funded cluster is buying alongside a broader cross-market thesis, making this coordinated high-signal flow worth surfacing despite the market being liquid.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and has done it across 61 related markets and 34 events.
- Five wallets funded by the same source have been flagged together, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 89¢ while also showing a broader thesis across 3 Iran-related markets totaling nearly $118k.
$4,450 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A historically strong wallet with an 82% win rate is extending a cross-market geopolitical thesis by effectively buying Yes at 73¢ in a liquid market after a sharp weekly pullback.
- This bettor wins 82% of their trades and is up about $441k lifetime
- They have put about $127k across 3 related markets, showing a coordinated geopolitical view
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 73¢, near the current ask, after this market fell 13.5 points over the last week
$3,019 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A 1-day-old wallet has already made repeated five-figure bets across related Iran markets, including an $18.2k buy at 72¢, suggesting strong fresh conviction rather than routine activity.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already been flagged 11 times with $168k in large bets
- This trader just bought $18.2k of Yes at 72¢ on a live geopolitical market
- They are also betting across a related Iran market, pointing to a broader event thesis
$18,175 on Yes
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
A 1-day-old wallet has already made over $156k in flagged bets and just put $30k into YES across two related Iran markets, which is notable fresh-conviction flow despite no proven track record yet.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already made 10 large flagged bets totaling $156k, suggesting unusually aggressive early activity
- This wallet just put $30k into YES on this market and another related Iran market, showing a concentrated geopolitical view
- The first buy came at 62¢ and the market is now 70¢, so this position moved in their favor quickly
$30,175 on Yes
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Four wallets put nearly $38k into Yes on a major geopolitics market, including two high-win-rate bettors and a brand-new wallet, signaling coordinated conviction despite the market already trading rich.
- Four wallets bought the same side for $38k total, a strong one-way bet on a major geopolitical market.
- Two of the wallets have strong records: one wins 83% of 64 resolved bets and another wins 78% of 97.
- One wallet was created just 3 hours ago and still placed a $6k bet, adding fresh-money conviction to the cluster.
$38,187 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x021e...67eb — Outcome 99943138, $500,000
- 0xf319...2ba6 — Outcome 99943138, $160,541
- 0x84f0...cd02 — Outcome 99943138, $100,000
- 0x8a9d...0281 — Outcome 99943138, $100,000
- 0x9512...a6dd — Outcome 99943138, $100,000
- 0xc196...c706 — Outcome 99943138, $100,000
- 0xc486...7b49 — Outcome 99943138, $99,175
- 0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 99943138, $78,501 (39% win rate)
- 0xbb10...9223 — Outcome 99943138, $70,738
- 0xd6a4...aa82 — Outcome 99943138, $68,471
