Smart Money SignalScore: 8.0

96% win-rate event trader

Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

A serial cross-market trader with an extraordinary 96% hit rate is buying No in a geopolitical event market at 78¢, making this a notable follow despite the modest size.

Total

$1,716

Trades

1

Win Rate

95%

Wallet P&L

-$192,839

Analysis

Copy Trade

Buy No at 78¢

IsraelRegional SpilloverGeopoliticsIranMilitary StrikesYemenHouthisIsrael x IranMiddle East
View all alerts for Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?

Detected April 3, 2026 at 11:07 PM

96% win-rate event trader | PolySpotter