96% win-rate serial trader

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
A serial cross-market trader with a 96% win rate added to the favored No side in this conflict market after a sharp weekly price drop, making it a notable follow despite the modest ticket size.
Total
$1,386
Trades
1
Win Rate
95%
Wallet P&L
-$192,839
Analysis
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved markets across 1,416 bets, showing a strong pattern of picking outcomes that finish in the money.
- They bought No at 79¢ after the Yes side fell 26 points over the past week, backing the market favorite as tensions cooled.
- They trade heavily across related markets — 270 events and 349 markets tracked — which suggests a repeatable event-driven process rather than a one-off bet.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 79¢
Detected April 4, 2026 at 11:28 AM