Quiet-market No breakout

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
A moderately large No buy in a quiet Berlin election market drove a major breakout, but the wallet’s track record is only mildly supportive.
Total
$2,190
Trades
1
Win Rate
48%
Wallet P&L
+$67,882
Analysis
- A $3.4k No buy was 66% of the market’s 24h volume, a sizable bet for this quiet election market.
- The trade helped push No to a new high, with CDU Yes down 24 points over the past week.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up $53.7k, though its 48% win rate is not a strong sharp-bettor signal.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 70¢
Detected July 24, 2026 at 12:16 AM