Whale adds No in thin market
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
A sizable add-on to an existing No position moved the thin market sharply and accounts for over eight times recent volume, despite the wallet lacking a standout win rate.
Total
$1,319
Trades
1
Win Rate
57%
Wallet P&L
+$56,253
Analysis
- A $1,319 No purchase represented 850% of the market's recent 24-hour volume.
- The trade helped push No sharply higher, with price impact flagged at 49 percentage points beyond its historical range.
- This wallet is adding to an existing $1,500 No position, though its 57% win rate is only moderate.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 88¢
Detected August 6, 2026 at 10:26 AM