Part of: Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory

Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?

The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,319.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, US Election, Wisconsin Primary, August 11 Primaries

Notable Trades

Whale adds No in thin market

A sizable add-on to an existing No position moved the thin market sharply and accounts for over eight times recent volume, despite the wallet lacking a standout win rate.

  • A $1,319 No purchase represented 850% of the market's recent 24-hour volume.
  • The trade helped push No sharply higher, with price impact flagged at 49 percentage points beyond its historical range.
  • This wallet is adding to an existing $1,500 No position, though its 57% win rate is only moderate.

$1,319 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%

Top Holders

  1. 0x41ea...7a3d Yes, $16,746 (35% win rate)
  2. 0xb1ca...1705 No, $15,330 (57% win rate)
  3. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $14,465
  4. 0x72e2...6610 No, $5,469 (90% win rate)
  5. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $5,111
  6. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $4,294 (69% win rate)
  7. 0x74f1...16a8 Yes, $2,945 (43% win rate)
  8. 0x5207...686b No, $1,741 (57% win rate)
  9. 0x1c14...0869 Yes, $982 (65% win rate)
  10. 0xce06...9a1e Yes, $878

Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?

ResolvedWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory$1,319 tracked1 signalPoliticsElectionsPrimariesUS ElectionWisconsin PrimaryAugust 11 Primaries
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “No
102¢
100¢
98¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?

17d ago

$1,319 on No at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢