Whale-sized bet in a quiet market
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
A $1,680 No bet dominated an almost inactive, thinly traded market and was followed by a sharp move toward No, though the wallet lacks a standout win-rate edge.
Total
$1,680
Trades
1
Win Rate
55%
Wallet P&L
+$152,053
Analysis
- A $1,680 bet represented over 100,000% of the market’s $2 in 24-hour volume.
- The trader bought No at 42¢, while No has since risen to roughly 72%, with Yes falling 18.5% in one day.
- This wallet has traded 54 events and is up $152,763, but its 58% win rate is not independently exceptional.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 42¢
Detected August 10, 2026 at 12:35 AM