Proven trader flips to No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c , including both the chart and downloadable files.
A high-volume, profitable cross-market specialist with a 72% win rate is taking a fresh, much larger No position after previously closing a small Yes bet, making this a notable thesis reversal worth tracking.
Total
$2,888
Trades
1
Win Rate
68%
Wallet P&L
+$255,353
Analysis
- This bettor has won 72% of 1,115 resolved markets and is up $181k overall.
- They just opened a fresh $2.9k No position after previously closing a small Yes bet on this market.
- Bought at 75¢ in a liquid market, showing a clear view that closure by April 30 is still unlikely.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 75¢
Detected April 6, 2026 at 5:02 AM